Your Numbers Are Lying To You – Aggressive Data Analyzation

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Your numbers are lying to you, and here’s why, most marketers take their conversion rates at face value, and never precisely analyze what’s going on with refunds, failed payments, and the whole funnel when you make changes.

It takes aggressive and proactive data analyzation to consistently understand what your results mean and how you should tweak your offers.  

We have been running 2 Sets of Upsells and Downsells and just ran a huge data analyzation across 2 of our main upsells and downsells. The first upsell is our $97 a month subscription and its downsell is a Free for 30 days Trial Subscription, then $97 a month payment. We hypothesized that $97 a month was too high of a price after the initial free month trial and that this was causing failed payments and refunds.  


After computing the data, we found that the Upsell did similar to what our upfront numbers on Infusionsoft were telling us, however the Downsell trial proved to be a different story.  The initial conversion rate was 11.32%, but only 49% of those who did the free trial ended up paying the $97 for the first payment.  


And finally, there was a 23.6% refund rate on those that paid the $97 on that initial payment. Our end conversion rate for the Downsell ended up being only 2.88%!  This is the bare-bones reality of how the Downsell is performing.  


It is easy to think that the face value of 11.32% Conversion Rate is solid, however, when you drill down on the numbers you see that only 2.88% of those conversions are paying the $97.

A $3.13 Earnings Per Click on a Downsell offer in my funnel isn’t bad, but it can be improved, and that’s what we will be looking to do over the coming months.

To further hammer home this concept of challenging the numbers you see, let’s take a look at our 2nd Upsell and Downsell.  

The Upsell is our $47 a month subscription and the Downsell is $4.95 for the first month and then $47 a month payment.  

We hypothesized that the $4.95 downsell was not converting into as many full subscriptions as our face numbers were telling us and that we might as well try to get more money on the front end.


After analyzing the data for the second upsell and downsell, we found our hypothesis to be correct.  Out of 85 conversions for the downsell, only 17 of them ended up paying the first $47 payment.  That’s only 20% of the payments that went through!


Then on top of that, 4 out of the 17 refunded their first $47 payment.  Again, we would not accept the 15.12% initial conversion rate as the reality of our results.  We put our numbers to the test and found the actual conversion rate was only 2.31%.


So as you can see above the actual take home Earnings Per Click on the $4.95 Trial downsell is only $1.08 which is terrible for someone coming through the funnel.

Going Forward

We’re still going to be doing trials, but we will be looking to pick up some more money on them. So we will be testing a $39.95 Trial on the First $97 a Month Downsell, and a $24.95 Trial on the 2nd $47 a Month downsell.

This will help us break even a lot faster on our advertising which will help us reinvest a lot quicker, thus growing the business faster.

The take-away from our data analyzed is that taking the time to hypothesize and drill down to your actual take home numbers is essential to your success.

If you’d Like Us to Find The Bottle Necks in Your Own Business We Should Talk!

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About The Author

Mike Buontempo is the Founder and CEO of Partner With Mike B. He's produced Millions of Dollars in Revenue for his own companies. He also Consults with High Level 6 and 7 Figure Companies on Traffic Generation, Sales Funnel Strategy, and Customer Value Optimization.

1 Comment on "Your Numbers Are Lying To You – Aggressive Data Analyzation"

  1. Avatar Elizabeth

    Sorry, I am still learning. No one has taught me anything yet. First was just looking in to a job online. I was still working at the time. Now I have not worked since July. I have seen so much it is overwhelming. I have noticed at times you see the same guys in the back ground. Thanks for listening.

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